By Fredrick Onyango Ogola
The escalating tensions involving the United States, Israel and Iran are not merely another distant geopolitical crisis. They are a stress test for the global order — and a defining moment for Africa. This crisis is taking place amidst global leadership crisis where the United States is led by a Nationalistic inward looking President in the face of recession whereby the markets are not performing well, Europe is dealing with Stagnation, Asia is facing economic Saturation while African Union and its leaders are suffering from Ideological Ambiguity where African Union is always deeply concerned on everything with little to no action even on African matters like the war in Sudan, DRC among others. But it’s during such crises when leadership emerges.
When major powers clash, Africa often absorbs the aftershocks: rising oil prices, currency volatility, food insecurity, disrupted fertilizer supply chains, and capital flight. Yet we are rarely central to the decisions that shape those outcomes.
This structural imbalance must end. The question before Africa is not which side to support. The question is whether we can convert global instability into continental leverage.
From Spectator to Strategic Actor
Africa controls 54 votes at the United Nations General Assembly. Collectively, that is one of the largest voting blocs in the world. In practice, however, those votes are often fragmented along historical, religious, financial, or security alignments.
Fragmentation dilutes power.If coordinated under the African Union, Africa could become a decisive diplomatic force at the United Nations — shaping resolutions, influencing negotiations, and demanding reforms that reflect 21st-century realities.This is not idealism. It is arithmetic,its Solomonic.
Strategic Non-Alignment 2.0
The Cold War produced the Non-Aligned Movement. Today’s multipolar tensions require something more sophisticated: strategic non-alignment anchored in economic self-interest. Africa should neither be drawn into proxy alignments nor retreat into passivity. Instead, it should pursue a clear doctrine built on three pillars:
- Continental coordination
- Economic sovereignty
- Institutional reform
This means tabling African-drafted resolutions calling for de-escalation while simultaneously using the moment to push long-overdue reforms of global governance — particularly reform of the UN Security Council, where Africa remains structurally excluded from permanent representation and the transformation of the current global Economic and financial architecture that was developed when none of the African nation was independent. Peace without representation is procedural injustice.
Aligning With Pope Leo’s Call for Diplomacy
In his apostolic exhortation Dilexi Te, Pope Leo XIV calls for a diplomacy rooted not in dominance, but in dialogue — a diplomacy that protects the vulnerable and resists the logic of escalation. This moral framework aligns profoundly with Africa’s strategic interests.
Africa does not benefit from escalation. Africa benefits from stability. Africa benefits from dialogue over destruction.
A continent that has endured colonial partition, proxy wars, structural adjustment shocks and externally driven instability understands the cost of geopolitical rivalry better than most.
Thus, Africa’s push for de-escalation at the United Nations would not merely be strategic positioning. It would be a principled stand consistent with the Pope’s appeal for dialogue, restraint, and justice in international relations.
Diplomacy is not a weakness. It is the architecture of peace.
The Economic Stakes
For Africa, the most immediate impact of Middle East instability is economic.
- Energy price spikes inflate transport and production costs.
- Fertilizer shortages threaten agricultural output.
- Food import bills rise.
- Inflation erodes purchasing power.
- Sovereign debt vulnerabilities intensify.
These are not abstract risks. They are budget lines.Africa must therefore advocate for global economic stabilization mechanisms that shield developing economies from geopolitical spillovers. This includes coordinated debt relief triggers during global crises, protection of essential commodity supply chains, and emergency liquidity support. If global stability is a public good, its costs must be shared equitably.
Energy Leverage, Not Dependency
Paradoxically, global instability also increases Africa’s strategic value. Major energy producers such as Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Libya become more central to global supply calculations during Middle East volatility. Likewise, Africa’s critical minerals — essential for the global energy transition — gain heightened importance.The danger is that Africa once again exports raw materials while importing refined dependency.The opportunity is to renegotiate terms:
- Local refining capacity
- Downstream petrochemical industries
- Industrial parks tied to energy corridors
- Technology transfer agreements
Geopolitical leverage must translate into structural transformation, not short-term revenue.
Security Autonomy as Economic Policy
Security dependence carries economic costs. When African states rely heavily on external military actors, strategic decisions become constrained. Operationalising and sustainably financing the African Standby Force is therefore not only a security issue; it is an economic sovereignty issue. Strategic autonomy reduces vulnerability to external pressure and enhances bargaining capacity in trade and diplomacy.
The Governance Reform Imperative
The present crisis underscores a deeper systemic flaw: the architecture of global governance does not reflect demographic or economic realities.
Africa’s exclusion from permanent representation at the UN Security Council is no longer just a diplomatic grievance. It is a structural risk to global legitimacy. But most importantly, the need to transform the global financial and economic architecture to provide a level playing field for Africans, especially the World Trade treaties. In a world where 1.4 billion Africans remain outside the core security and economic decision-making framework, stability itself becomes fragile. Reform is not charity. It is risk management.
A Solomonic Moment
Africa’s strategic path must be neither reactive nor ideological. It must be rational. Solomonic economics teaches that wisdom lies in balance — balancing sovereignty with interdependence, neutrality with principle, leverage with responsibility. Africa does not need to inflame global tensions to gain relevance. It needs coherence. If the continent speaks with one voice, negotiates with discipline, and links diplomacy to industrial policy, it can move from the periphery of crisis to the centre of solutions. The world is fragmenting. Supply chains are regionalising. Power is diffusing.
In such a world, those who organise strategically gain influence. Africa has the numbers.Africa has the resources. Africa has the demographic momentum.What remains is coordination. History will not wait for perfect conditions. It rewards prepared actors.This may well be Africa’s strategic moment.
Prof. Fred Ogola is LDP Presidential Aspirant 2027. He is a Strategist, Economist and Governance Expert by Certified IFC World Bank and European Central Bank. Currently serving as the Deputy Vice Chancellor- Uzima University. He was the Academic Director for over 12 years at Strathmore Business School. He has Developed over 413 Curriculums with Higher Education, published over 7 books, 317 scientific articles, trained over 1 million C-Suit Executives in Kenya, Africa and Globally. He is the Founder and Convener of Africa Digital Assets https://adasummit.com/ Contact- fredotbs@gmail.com
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